This fantasy football season has been the most unpredictable in recent memory. The running back position is in disarray. Tight end is just as terrible as always but might seem worse with one of the most talented players at the position, Kyle Pitts, being completely wasted in Atlanta (a bit of foreshadowing here). Jared Goff is the QB4 on the year so far. With so much unpredictability, we have some players below that we recommend starting this week, even if it might not seem that way looking at past performances, the matchup, etc. Last week we picked the eventual QB4 (Wilson), RB1 (Ekeler), WR14 (Olave), and TE1 (Hockenson).
QB – Derek Carr (LV) vs. Kansas City Carr started the year off with three solid fantasy performances in a row. He is coming off a dud game last week, but is primed for a bounce back vs. divisional rival Kansas City in week 5. The Chiefs allow the 5th most points to quarterbacks in the league so far. One of the only teams worse against the pass is Carr’s own Las Vegas Raiders. Renfrow should be back this week, and the Raiders should be playing catchup vs a Chiefs team allowing 286 yards and 2.5 touchdowns through the air per game.
RB – Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) vs. Detroit Stevenson has been the RB2 to Damien Harris so far this season. He is still seeing a 44% touch percentage while on the field, which is slightly higher than both CMC and Jonathan Taylor so far this season. He has a matchup with a Lions team that is giving up the 2nd most fantasy points per game to the position. The Lions are the only team to have allowed a top-12 RB finish in fantasy every week this season. Stevenson and Harris will split touches pretty evenly this week, as they have all season. With a hobbled Mac Jones at QB (at best) expect a lot of work on the ground for both backs in New England, this week.
WR – Chris Olave (NO) vs. Seattle This one doesn’t even seem fair, given how good Olave has been this season. His ranking of WR19 according to ECR is way too low for me. I have him at WR9. Michael Thomas is out in this one, and Seattle gives up the 2nd most 20+ yard passing plays in the NFL. Olave leads the league with 673 air yards so far this year; 220 more than Tyreek Hill, who is in 2nd place in the metric. Olave is dominating deep, and Seattle is consistently beaten deep. Olave should see close to his average of almost 4 deep targets per game in this contest, and should be able to make the most of it.
Tight End – Kyle Pitts (ATL) vs. Tampa Bay I hate this pick. Pitts has been the most disappointing fantasy player in recent memory, and the offense doesn’t seem to know how to use him. However, Tampa Bay has been giving up the 4thmost tight end points of any team this season, and the 13th fewest wide receiver points. The Falcons will be playing catch-up, and the passing attack is much more open to the tight end position. Pitts is still playing 78% of snaps, the second-highest mark on the team. If he plays this week, he should finally be in line for a solid performance.
Tight End – Dallas Goedert (PHI) vs. Arizona In case Pitts is inactive this week, Goedert is our next pick for the start of the week at tight end. He is facing an Arizona team that ranks 30th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to the tight end position. Goedert is one of the best tight ends in football on one of the highest-powered offenses. This is an easy call as a backup.